Holohan was on the telly last night.
He is our Chief Medical Guru and the Voice of Doom every evening when he announces that latest batch of figures and endless statistics.
I’m sure he’s a nice enough chap but fuckit he’s a fierce cautious bastard when it comes to Rona. I can see his point of view which is purely from the medical perspective and an over reliance on mathematical modelling. He was “cautiously optimistic” about the future provided we all behave ourselves and keep our “social distancing” and all all that crap. Ideally he would like all of us to lock ourselves in a room for the next six weeks.
I have been keeping a weary eye on things and have been watching the figures in passing. One of the yokes I found shows the trends of “positive tests” and deaths since the start –
Now three things occur to me looking at that graph.
The first is that the reason for the huge second peak in confirmed cases is down more to increased testing than any great resurgence of Rona.
The second is the confirmed deaths graph. A bit of a blip around May but it has been remarkably stable since then. It certainly doesn’t correlate with the other graph.
The third thing is the second peak. To my semi-trained eye that looks suspiciously like a graph which has reached its highest and is starting a downward trend again. I might be wrong but I’m prepared to take a punt on it.
We have just entered another six weeks of lockdown. And just before this lockdown started the figures started to improve. It is nonsense to credit the lockdown with that improvement, but we can be sure that the “experts” will claim all the credit and use it as an excuse for stricter and more prolonged measures. “Just look at how we crushed the second wave with our restrictions” they will cry. “We must have harsher measures to keep it at bay”.
Holohan has handed us a carrot though.
If we behave ourselves and keep strictly to his rules then he will allow us celebrate Christmas!
What a magnanimous man?