The Brexit Solution

I must confess I am a little intrigued by this Brexit lark.

As an outsider, it is like a slow motion view of a major rail disaster.  Two express trains heading towards each other on the same track.  Each knowing the other is coming and each piling on the throttle in the hopes they'll push the other off the rails and stay on track themselves.

What really intrigues me though is not the vote, but how it will be received in Brussels. 

My view is that they cannot allow a Brexit.  They have put sixty years of effort to move towards a United States of Europe and a Brexit would be a disaster.  The ship is barely afloat at the moment, and a Brexit would be equivalent to hitting an iceberg – the ship might not sink immediately but they'd have to run the bilge-pumps a lot harder.

So how are they going to react if the UK votes to leave?

Well, they could apply the Irish solution – tell them they got it all wrong and demand another vote until they get it right.

Another scenario is that post election, Brussels will announce that a new retrospective rule states that the Leave camp must have a minimum of 90% of the votes, and that the Stay camp have therefore won.

Or they could decide that the referendum was a statement of desire from the British people but that the final decision rests with Parliament?  The lads in Westminster don't want to upset their pals in Brussels, so that vote would be a foregone conclusion.

Or Brussels could just decide to ignore the outcome and carry on regardless.with their Fourth Reich Project.

I cannot see Brussels sitting back and just letting a country leave their cozy little setup.  It would cause too many ripples and [Heaven forbid] encourage other countries to go down the same path.  It would to all intents and purposes be a massive kick in the bollix.

So I shall watch with interest.

From a selfish point of view I fervently hope Brexit succeeds as Brussels deserves their collective bollix to be kicked and a lot more besides.  Hopefully it would open the floodgates [or the stopcocks, to keep my shipping metaphor intact] and others would also demand to leave, leading the the final sinking of the whole monstrosity.

In the meantime I shall sit back and watch with fun as each side enters panic mode and the claims become more outrageous'

Martyn Turner sums it up nicely in the Irish Times

MartynTurner

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Comments

The Brexit Solution — 14 Comments

  1. I think the big fear in Brussels is that if the Brits opt out, it will have a snowball effect on several other countries, and the whole edifice will rapidly start to unravel. There's a huge amount of dissatisfaction at grassroots level throughout Europe at the way all the decisions on the EU are made behind closed doors by unelected technocrats, and the wishes of the hoi polloi are treated with contempt by the suits who believe they know better.

    If the Brits vote for Brexit (which is looking increasingly likely), my gut feeling is that the EU, knowing that they probably wouldn't get away with just overriding the result, will go into overdrive to broker a 'special' deal with the UK, which Cameron will hail as the perfect compromise and a total victory for the UK, without mentioning the plethora of caveats in the new treaty which will basically mean nothing changes very much.

    • You can be sure there would be a snowball effect.  It would encourage all those who are dissatisfied with their membership, and even if there were no further referendums, that dissatisfaction would have a voice and a clarion cry.

      I just cannot see the EU ever agreeing to a Brexit under any conditions.  It would be akin to Hitler giving Poland back because they asked nicely?  It has taken sixty years to get this far and I just can't see them giving any of it up.  I may be wrong [and I hope I am] but all we can do is wait and see what happens.

  2. The remainiacs have already started to load the dice in their favour. Not to mention mutterings that Parliament should have the final say, as the rest of us are to stupid to understand.

     

    One things for sure, 'Call Me Dave' is finished one way or the other.
     

    • All comments are going through normally [I just deleted your duplicate].  I have been checking on this little problem and have made some tweaks to the engine.  It only seems to affect a very small number of comments though.  Strange!

  3. I too wonder how they – meaning both our Parliament here in the UK and the EU themselves – are going to manage to ensure that we don’t escape.  Because, by hook or by crook, you can be certain of one thing and that’s that they won’t let us get away.  My money is on some skewing of the referendum result.  We’ve already heard all about the non-UK passport-holders who have been sent hundreds, perhaps thousands, of voting cards.  Does anyone think for one second that all those – most likely – “in” votes are going to go uncounted?  Add to that a little bit of judicious mis-counting (conveniently in favour of the “in” vote, natch) and, with the polls currently running at pretty much 50/50, who’s going to be any the wiser?  And with an “in” vote winning, by no matter how slender a majority, there’s no need for any further shenanigans, is there?  It’s by far the easiest of all the possible “solutions,” it’s entirely within the power of our almost-universally pro-EU politicians to achieve and, being almost completely devoid of any shred of conscience or integrity, I have no doubt that they already been busy planning, behind closed doors, exactly how to get away with it.

    The only possible silver lining to an “in” vote will be the possibility of a massive shift towards UKIP in the next election and, with enough seats in Parliament, the possibility of a repeal of the 1972 Act.  Job done.

    • Seeing as gubmints these days lack any scruples, a rigged vote is a distinct possibility.  All it would take is for a few ballot boxes to go missing, or for ballot papers to be placed "accidentally" in the wrong pile?  Maybe they'd like some advice from our lot?  One of the phenomena I have notice here during counts where a candidate demands a recount and no matter how many times they recount, they always come up with different figures.

  4. A fifth response to a Brexit vote would be possible, Grandad. The Remain officers in the British Army could be minded to depose the government and rule temporarily for the national good 'pending the holding of a second referendum within 18 months'. That would be a radical variation on the Irish Government response of holding a second referendum democratically.

    Are you stockpiling emergency supplies of US dollars, Swiss francs and Chinese RMB under your mattress in the meantime? You only have 11 days to secure your financial future.

    • Actually there is a sixth scenario, that is probably the most likely – The Leave vote wins, so the UK goes through a lengthy process of withdrawal with loads of new conditions and treaties.  At the end of the day the UK will have nominally "withdrawn" but will secretly still be members.  It's the same trick they pulled with the constitution – just give it a new name.

      What little cash I have is safely stored.  It survived the global crash so should survive a hiccup.

  5. Dear Mr. Toyota, Nissan, Honda,

    As you may have heard the UK are likely to pull out of the EU thereby making it difficult for you to sell British made cars to Europe. I would like to introduce you to the possibility of relocating said car plants to Ireland to avoid any trade barriers or tariffs. Give us a call some fine day to discuss the opportunities available here.

    Yours sincerely,

    Dónal T. Rump

    IDA Ireland

    • P.S. You had better move quickly though and we can't guarantee that the arrangement will be permanent.  Once those Irish have found there's an exit door, God knows what will happen.

      DTR

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